x.com/malteseherald/status/1…
“Fall guy” theory: Unsubstantiated reports and social media speculation suggest that Ahmadzada was arrested as a scapegoat to protect the Azerbaijani government and President Aliyev from direct blame ahead of his visit to the UN General Assembly in New York. However, there is no official confirmation of this theory.
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Mixing of Azeri and Russian oil to avoid sanctions was done under the personal agreement between Putin and Aliyev, Adnan Ahmadzada is a designated fall guy, arrested just before Aliyevs’ visit to New York – Google Search  google.com/search?q=Mixing+o…
Based on recent news reports and investigations, there is strong evidence that Azerbaijan is involved in schemes to help Russia circumvent international oil sanctions, but claims of a personal agreement between Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev are unconfirmed. The arrest of former SOCAR official Adnan Ahmadzada is also reported, but his role as a “designated fall guy” is a circulating theory, not an established fact. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Evidence of Azerbaijan’s role in sanction evasion

Targeted sanctions: Since May 2025, the UK and EU have issued sanctions against Azerbaijani entities, including the state-owned tanker Zangazur and directors of the trading company Coral Energy Group (now 2Rivers Group). They are accused of involvement in the “shadow” transport of sanctioned Russian oil.
Refining Russian crude: Investigative reports from May 2025 detail how Azerbaijan’s state oil company (SOCAR) refines Russian oil at its STAR refinery in Turkey. The refined products, including diesel and jet fuel, are then exported to Europe.
Product contamination: In August 2025, a shipment of Azeri crude oil to Romania was found to be contaminated with organic chlorides, a substance sometimes used in the Russian oil industry. Romanian authorities reportedly suspect Russian sabotage, which adds another layer to the complex trade situation. [1, 3, 4, 5, 6]

The arrest of Adnan Ahmadzada

Fraud charges: Adnan Ahmadzada, a former SOCAR deputy, was reportedly arrested in September 2025 on charges of oil fraud and mixing different grades of crude oil.
“Fall guy” theory: Unsubstantiated reports and social media speculation suggest that Ahmadzada was arrested as a scapegoat to protect the Azerbaijani government and President Aliyev from direct blame ahead of his visit to the UN General Assembly in New York. However, there is no official confirmation of this theory. [1, 7, 8]

The alleged Putin-Aliyev agreement

No proof: While recent sanctions and corruption allegations indicate a systematic effort to evade Russian oil sanctions via Azerbaijan, there is no publicly available evidence of a personal agreement between Putin and Aliyev orchestrating the scheme.
Known energy cooperation: It is known that Russia’s Lukoil provides crude oil to SOCAR’s refinery in Turkey, and the two countries have a broader energy partnership. In August 2024, Aliyev hosted Putin and the two agreed to increase trade. [4, 9]

Conclusion
Current reporting indicates that Azerbaijan is actively involved in sanction evasion related to Russian oil, and a former SOCAR official has been arrested on related charges. However, the specific claims of a personal agreement between Putin and Aliyev, and Adnan Ahmadzada being a designated “fall guy,” are part of unconfirmed theories and social media speculation, not officially reported facts. [1, 3, 5]

AI responses may include mistakes.

[1]  youtube.com/shorts/uPlcP_Yl-…
[2]  youtube.com/shorts/uPlcP_Yl-…
[3]  jam-news.net/shadow-russian-…
[4]  business-humanrights.org/my/…
[5]  jam-news.net/europe-bans-rus…
[6]  yahoo.com/news/articles/roma…
[7]  x.com/malteseherald/status/1…
[8]  azernews.az/region/247715.ht…
[9]  anca.org/azerbaijan-serial-s… x.com/malteseherald/status/1969623870391845053

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Sep 23, 2025