On September 7, over 14 million voters in Buenos Aires Province will participate in critical legislative elections, marking a significant test for Javier Milei’s government, with Buenos Aires accounting for more than 37% of the national electorate, reports 24brussels.
This provincial election will see the election of 23 full provincial senators, 15 alternates, 46 full provincial deputies, and 28 alternates, renewing half of the legislative positions in both chambers.
Buenos Aires Province is paramount nationally in terms of production, economy, and population. It is divided into eight sections, which dictate how legislators are apportioned, impacting which positions are filled. Each municipality will also elect councillors, aiming to appoint a total of 1,097 municipal councillors and 401 school councillors.
Current polling indicates that Peronism, represented by the Fuerza Patria (FP) coalition, leads by 2 to 3 points over La Libertad Avanza (LLA), with Veronica Magario (FP) at 47.4% against Maximiliano Bondarenko (LLA) at 32%. Other parties, including the Left Front and We are Buenos Aires, show support of 6.4% and 5.9%, respectively, while remaining parties collectively gather about 6.6%. Fuerza Patria remains particularly strong in the Third Electoral Section, a historical Peronist bastion since democracy was restored.
Meanwhile, the First Electoral Section, which encompasses municipalities in northern Greater Buenos Aires with significant income concentration, had shown a favorable trend towards LLA two months prior.
However, revelations of corruption scandals involving President Milei, his sister, and the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies connected to the misappropriation of funds meant for medical supplies for people with disabilities could potentially alter voter sentiment. The scandal surfaced through incriminating audio recordings from a close associate of the president.
Economic instability has also intensified in the week leading up to the elections, with the U.S. dollar’s value rising sharply. The Country Risk indicator, compiled by JP Morgan and widely referenced in local media, has reached its highest level in five months, closing over 900 basis points just before the elections.
In the First and Third Electoral Sections alone, more than 9 million voters are registered, making the contest between the leading factions, Fuerza Patria and Alianza La Libertad Avanza, a focal point of the electoral battle.