Day: October 21, 2025

Over the next decade, the countries of Central Asia are preparing to launch a wave of industrial projects: copper mines, gas-chemical complexes, hydropower and nuclear plants, fertilizer factories, and others. The largest initiatives, valued at tens of billions of dollars, could significantly alter the balance of global markets.

Uzbekistan: Betting on Metallurgy and Gas Chemistry

Uzbekistan has been particularly active in launching new industrial projects. The largest initiative is the $15 billion expansion of the Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Combine (AMMC), designed to increase copper cathode production from 148,000 to 400,000 tons annually by 2030.

This more than two-fold increase is driven by strong global demand for copper. In May 2024, prices exceeded $11,000 per ton due to anticipated shortages linked to the energy transition and rising consumption in green technologies. Copper has become a key metal for electrification, and Uzbekistan’s copper megaproject fits squarely into this global trend, positioning the country as an emerging player in the market.

Another strategic direction is the deep processing of natural gas into chemical products. In spring 2024, construction began on a $5 billion methanol-to-olefins gas-chemical complex in Bukhara.

The plant, located in the Karakul Free Economic Zone, will process 1.3 billion m³ of gas and 430,000 tons of naphtha per year, producing up to 1.1 million tons of polymers. Completion is expected in 2027. The facility will create 2,000 direct jobs, and about 4,000 more in related industries such as construction materials, textiles, automotive, and electronics.

Equipment suppliers include companies from the United States, Germany, and China, and the project is led by Uzbekistan’s largest oil and gas company, Sanoat Energetika Guruhi (Saneg).

An even larger $10 billion MTO project is planned for completion by 2028, creating about 3,000 jobs and further expanding polymer production based on methanol.

Uzbekistan is also investing in modernizing existing facilities. The $1.8 billion expansion of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex is under way, and preparations are being made for the privatization of the $3.4 billion Uzbekistan GTL plant launched in 2021.

In renewables, a 250 MW solar power plant with Masdar is being built in Bukhara region with UAE partner Masdar, scheduled to come online by late 2025.

Turkmenistan: Fuel, Energy, and the Chemical Industry

Turkmenistan, which holds the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves, is focusing on export-oriented energy projects and the development of gas-chemical production. A key regional initiative is the TAPI pipeline (Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India), valued at more than $7 billion.

In 2024, work began on the Turkmen segment from Serhetabat on the Afghan border to Herat, forming the central section of the route. TAPI aims to deliver Turkmen gas to South Asian markets and enhance regional energy security. Despite geopolitical challenges, construction continues under the government’s “Arkadag Bright Path” energy development strategy.

The country is also expanding its domestic processing capacity. In 2019, Turkmenistan launched the world’s first industrial gas-to-gasoline (GTG) plant in Ovadan Depe, a $1.7 billion facility that converts 1.8 billion m³ of gas into 600,000 tons of A-92 gasoline annually. The fuel is already being exported to Afghanistan. Authorities are now considering a second GTG plant with foreign partners to increase liquid fuel production.

In addition, Turkmenistan is boosting its chemical industry. In 2018, the country commissioned a $3.4 billion gas-chemical complex in Kiyanly, which processes 5 billion m³ of gas into 380,000 tons of polyethylene and 80,000 tons of polypropylene annually.

By 2024, cement plants in Bakharden and Lebap were being expanded, and a new high-voltage power line (Balkan–Dashoguz) was under construction along with new power stations. According to official data, 86 industrial and social facilities were commissioned in 2024, and GDP grew by 6.3 percent.

Kazakhstan Enters the Potash Market and Develops Nuclear Energy

Kazakhstan, the most diversified economy in Central Asia, is strengthening its industrial base across several key sectors. One of the most ambitious initiatives is the country’s first potash mining and processing complex. Qazaq Kalium is developing the Satimola deposit of potash and boron salts in the West Kazakhstan region, with plans to process 25 million tons of potash ore and 1 million tons of boron-bearing ore annually by 2035.

The $2.4 billion project will produce potash fertilizers such as potassium chloride and boric acid, reaching a capacity of 6 million tons per year. This figure is comparable to China’s 6.3 million tons in 2024 and Germany’s 3 million.

The project would make Kazakhstan one of the world’s top five potash producers, with an estimated global market share of around 14 percent. The complex is expected to create 4,000 jobs and fully meet domestic demand while expanding exports. Officials view the project as a boost to food security and economic stability, given persistently high global fertilizer prices in recent years.

Kazakhstan has also become the first country in Central Asia to begin building a nuclear power plant near Ulken, in partnership with Russia’s Rosatom, in the village of Ulken in the Almaty region. The $15 billion project was approved by a national referendum in October 2024, with 71 percent of citizens voting in favor. It is expected to create 10,000 jobs during construction and more than 2,000 permanent positions once operational.

In his September 8 address to the nation, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized that this first plant marks only the beginning of Kazakhstan’s long-term energy strategy. Plans for a second and third nuclear power plant are already under consideration. He highlighted Kazakhstan’s strategic partnership with China in the nuclear sector and stressed that the country remains open to cooperation with global partners on a mutually beneficial basis to ensure long-term energy sovereignty. Recent updates include Rosatom’s selection as the first-plant contractor and the IAEA’s site approval.

Tajikistan: A Hydropower Giant and Industrial Revival

Tajikistan’s key project is the Rogun Hydropower Plant on the Vakhsh River, which should resolve chronic electricity shortages and turn the country into an energy exporter. With a planned capacity of 3,780 MW and six turbine units of 630 MW each, Rogun will be the largest hydropower facility in Central Asia. The first units are already operational, and full completion is expected by 2030.

Valued at over $6 billion, the project is co-financed by the Asian Development Bank, the EBRD, and the Islamic Development Bank. Analysts say it could supply electricity to 10 million people, end winter blackouts, and help decarbonize regional energy systems through green exports. The dam reservoir will also help manage floods and stabilize water supplies. New measures under a no-net-loss reforestation plan have also been announced, and Tajikistan has discussed supplying Rogun power to Uzbekistan at 3.4 cents/kWh.

Tajikistan is also modernizing its industrial base. The Tajik Aluminum Company (TALCO), the region’s largest industrial plant, is being upgraded with Chinese assistance. In 2024, the government signed a deal with China Machinery Engineering Corp (CMEC) to modernize smelting capacity, increasing output by 20 to 25 percent.

Plans for a new $1.6 billion aluminum plant with Yunnan Company have been delayed, but production still rose by 22.5 percent in 2024 to about 19,000 tons of rolled aluminum.

In the mining sector, Tajikistan is developing its reserves of precious and rare metals. More than 75 percent of gold output is controlled by Chinese investors, and the giant Koni Mansur silver deposit, requiring about $4 billion in investment, is being developed by a Chinese company. The deposit holds an estimated 70,000 tons of silver.

The government is also promoting public-private partnerships for rare metal projects such as Yakjilva in the Gorno-Badakhshan (GBAO) region, though these plans have sparked debates about resource sovereignty and national interests.

Kyrgyzstan: An Industrial Leap and Cross-Border Cooperation

Kyrgyzstan’s economy has traditionally relied on gold mining and hydropower, but in recent years the government has pushed for industrial revival and diversification. In 2024, the prime minister announced the launch of 100 new production facilities supported by tax incentives and state aid for strategic projects. By year-end, the goal was surpassed, with 102 plants worth a total of $800 million opened.

Among them are the $160 million Terek-Tash cement plant in Chuy region, a ceramic tile factory, a porcelain stoneware plant, a tobacco factory, and a $50 million machine-building facility developed jointly with Uzbekistan.

A 700-hectare logistics hub near Bishkek is also under construction, and the government has revived the Soviet-era Mailuu-Suu electric lamp plant to produce modern lighting equipment. New factories for trucks, LED lamps, paper, and agricultural drones have been opened with Chinese investment.

The Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP-1) is another megaproject that could transform the region’s energy balance. Planned since Soviet times, this 1,860 MW plant on the Naryn River is moving forward after a 2023 agreement between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan; experts recently emphasized seismic due-diligence as financing advances.

Kyrgyzstan is also exploring its mineral resources. The prime minister announced that one deposit contains confirmed reserves of 20 million tons of titanomagnetite ore, while the Kutessay II site holds up to 60,000 tons of rare earth metals. These projects remain in early stages, with technoparks and geological surveys under way.

A Region Entering a New Industrial Era

Central Asia is undergoing an industrial upswing driven by globally demanded sectors. Regional leaders are drawing lessons from global trends while leveraging local advantages. The region is entering a new phase of industrialization, with announced projects totaling tens of billions of dollars, and their implementation could significantly boost Central Asia’s combined GDP over the next five to ten years.

However, success will depend on several factors: securing financing, improving the investment climate, developing a skilled workforce, and maintaining regional stability. Each of the five Central Asian countries is claiming its own industrial niche while complementing the others. This model not only creates domestic benefits but also integrates the region more deeply into the global economy than ever before.