Day: October 7, 2025

• The travel trade deficit is projected to reach $70 billion in 2025, the US Travel Association said.
• The United States has historically had a travel trade surplus, but inbound travel has declined.
• The decrease has been driven primarily by a sharp decline in Canadian visitors.

A stated goal of President Donald Trump’s ambitious tariff policy was to reduce the United States’ trade deficits around the world, but at least one has ballooned this year: the travel trade deficit.

A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more goods and services than it exports. When it comes to travel, that means when Americans are spending more money on travel abroad than international visitors are spending in the United States.

According to the US Travel Association’s travel forecast released last week, the travel trade deficit for 2025 was on track to be nearly $70 billion, as international visitors have pulled back on visiting the United States.

Travel is a major export for the United States. While exports are often thought of as physical products that are shipped abroad, such as crude oil or cars, they also include services produced domestically and consumed by foreigners. For instance, a French national’s five-night stay at a hotel in New York is considered a service export, since it brings money into the country from a non-resident.

Historically, the industry has produced a trade surplus, meaning that foreigners spent more visiting the United States than Americans spent abroad on travel. But at the same time that international inbound travel has declined, the number of Americans traveling abroad has continued to increase.

In April, after international travel to the United States experienced a decline, the US Travel Association said the country was running at a $50 billion travel trade deficit, marking “a sharp reversal from our historical surplus in travel exports.” In 2022, the United States had a $3.5 billion travel trade surplus, according to data from the US Department of Commerce.

The recent US Travel Association’s travel forecast also said the number of international arrivals to the United States was expected to decline by 6.3% in 2025 compared to 2024, marking the first decline in inbound travel since 2020. Visitor spending was expected to decline by 3.2%.

The US Travel Association said the decline in visitors from Canada was the primary driver of the decrease. Some Canadians began boycotting travel to the United States earlier this year in response to Trump’s tariffs and comments about making the neighbor to the north the 51st state.

In August, the number of Canadians returning to the country from the United States by car was down nearly 34% compared to the same month a year prior, according to data from the Canadian government. United States border towns and business owners recently told Business Insider they are feeling the economic impact of fewer Canadian visitors.

There are a couple of major travel events coming up next year that could help reverse the decline in international visitors to the United States: the FIFA World Cup and celebrations for America’s 250th birthday. The US Travel Association said it expects international visitation to resume growth as a result of these events.

However, it also said the United States is at risk of further deterring international visitors due to “potential increases in visa fees, extended wait times for visa applications and renewals, and negative sentiment towards the U.S. in key markets.”

Do you have a story to share about traveling to, or avoiding travel to, the United States? Contact this reporter at kvlamis@businessinsider.com.

Two weeks after winning a special election for Arizona’s 7th congressional district, Democratic Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva has yet to be sworn in to Congress—and the delay is also preventing a key development in the saga surrounding late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, whom President Donald Trump has tried to distance himself from despite apparent associations.

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Grijalva told Phoenix radio network KJZZ Monday that she’s heard “absolutely nothing” from House Speaker Mike Johnson or House officials on when she could take her oath. “There has been direct communication with the Speaker’s office and myself,” Grijalva said. “But they’re—having canceled all of their votes, have no indication at all as to when I might get sworn in.”

Johnson had committed to swearing in Grijalva swiftly: speaking to CBS Mornings last Thursday, the House Speaker said that while “the House is not on the floor doing business” that week, he promised to do so “early next week as soon as everyone returns to town. We have to have everybody here, and we’ll swear her in.”

But the Speaker broke that promise. On Friday, a notice from Johnson read on the House floor said that Oct. 7-13 will be a “district work period,” which means lawmakers can work from their districts rather than in D.C. Previously scheduled votes were cancelled. With no committee hearings scheduled and no bills up for floor consideration, the House is effectively out of session.

“The House did its job,” Johnson said Friday, referring to a continuing resolution to fund the government that was passed by the Republican-majority lower chamber. “And it’s been rejected by the Senate.”

But Johnson’s move to put the House in recess has also effectively prevented Grijalva from starting her job. “I am still waiting,” Grijalva told KJZZ. “The sad part is that there are so many questions,” she added.

Grijalva argued she can be sworn in “at any time,” as Johnson has done with other lawmakers who won special elections. But there’s incentive for Johnson and Republicans to delay Grijalva’s official duties: once sworn in, Grijalva can break a different congressional impasse herself. She vowed on the campaign trail to be the last-needed vote in the House’s bid to force the Trump Administration to release undisclosed documents related to Epstein. (The bill would still need to also pass in the Republican-majority Senate.)

Democrats have pushed to fast-track the process of Grijalva’s swearing-in and accused Johnson and the House Republican leadership of stalling to protect Trump and their chamber from incurring the President’s wrath. 

“You get the White House undermining our democracy,” Massachusetts Rep. Jim McGovern, the senior Democrat on the House Rules Committee, said Monday, “and now you get the Speaker of the House doing the same thing.”

Who is Adelita Grijalva?

A Tucson native, Grijalva, 54, is the daughter of former Arizona Rep. Raúl Grijalva. The elder Grijalva served in the House since 2003, representing the state’s 7th district from 2003 to 2013, the state’s 3rd district from 2013 to 2023, and the 7th district again from 2023 until his death at age 77 in March. He was set to retire at the end of his term but suffered from lung cancer and died from related complications.

The younger Grijalva, who is married to a librarian and has three children, worked in the public sector for a while before running for Congress. According to her campaign biography, Grijalva was first elected to the Tucson Unified School District Governing Board in 2002, and she served on the Pima County Board of Supervisors after being elected in 2020 and re-elected in 2024. She also worked at Pima County Teen Court for more than 25 years.

After her father’s death, Grijalva announced her candidacy for his congressional seat on March 31. She won the Democratic primary in July, and on Sept. 23, she faced off against Republican candidate Daniel Butierez. Grijalva won the special election with almost 69% of the vote.

How can Grijalva influence the Epstein files’ release?

Grijalva has said that one of her top priorities is to sign the petition on the discharge of the so-called “Epstein files,” which the Justice Department under Trump has said that it has no plans to release. “First, I will sign the discharge petition for the release of the Epstein files and other similar petitions,” Grijalva told El Pais Monday. 

The Epstein files have been the subject of congressional fascination ever since controversy around the Trump Administration’s handling of the issue exploded over the summer. Reps. Thomas Massie (R, Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D, Calif.) have led an effort to compel the Justice Department to release those files. Johnson, on the other hand, has backed a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee probe into the files—a move that is largely seen as symbolic and ineffectual, given that the panel isn’t required to take any action on the files on the House floor. 

In the House, the Speaker works with committee leaders to set the chamber’s agenda and decide on the bills and resolutions that get a vote. This allows House leaders to ignore any agenda they don’t want to handle. But Massie’s and Khanna’s discharge petition could bypass Johnson and force the House to vote on the release of the files if it gets 218 signatures from House members. 

The petition currently has 217 signatories: all 213 current House Democrats, plus four Republicans—Massie, Lauren Boebert (Colo.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), and Nancy Mace (S.C.). Once Grijalva takes office, she is expected to be the much-awaited 218th signature.

But Grijalva’s signature doesn’t automatically send the discharge petition to the Senate. Supporters of the discharge petition must wait seven days before they can motion for a vote, and then the Speaker is required to hold a vote on the proposal within two legislative days. Still, Johnson can try to block the discharge effort in the Rules Committee, though the panel has rebelled against him in the past. He can also motion to “table” the vote, but that would require the Republican signatories of the discharge to support the tabling of it, which they are unlikely to do.

Is delaying Grijalva’s appointment allowed?

Johnson has suggested that Grijalva will be sworn in as soon as the shutdown ends. “The House will come back into session and do its work as soon as Chuck Schumer allows us to reopen the government,” he said.

But Grijalva and others believe the crucial Epstein vote is the sole reason for the delay in her swearing-in. 

“Johnson and the House Republicans care more about protecting the Epstein files than protecting the American people,” Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D, N.Y.) said Friday.

“I really, truly try not to be a conspiracy theorist about any of it,” Grijalva told KJZZ. “I think there’s plausible explanations for most things. Unfortunately, in this case, the only thing that differentiates me from the other three people that have been sworn in in specials this year is that I am the 218th signer to the discharge petitions to release the Epstein files.”

Johnson called the suggestion “totally absurd” on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday. “This has nothing to do with that. It’s another red herring,” he said.

But even some of the handful of Republicans in favor of the discharge petition have also connected the dots. “Why are we in recess? Because the day we go back into session, I have 218 votes for the discharge petition to force a vote on releasing the Epstein files,” Massie posted on X. “Not being in session certainly does avoid the Epstein discharge petition, which I’ve never understood why it’s anything to hide,” Greene told Axios. “Aren’t we all against convicted pedophiles and anyone who enables them?”

Compared to Grijalva’s case, Johnson has not taken his time swearing in other newly elected lawmakers who won in special elections earlier this year. The House was not in regular session when Johnson swore in Florida Republican Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis in April, just a day after their election victories. And in September, Johnson swore in Virginia Democratic Rep. James Walkinshaw the day after he won. 

Under House rules, “until a Member-elect has subscribed to the oath, he does not enjoy all the rights and prerogatives of a Member of Congress.” Those rules, however, do not specify when a swearing-in ceremony should occur. 

Because of the inconsistency, some have flagged Johnson’s apparent double standards and raised questions about whether the delay is even allowed. Grijalva’s fellow Arizona Democrat, Rep. Greg Stanton, told Johnson in a Sept. 30 letter that with his “blocking” of Grijalva’s swearing-in, he is “depriving more than 800,000 Arizonans of their rightful voice in Congress,” which Stanton alleged is “a direct violation of both the Constitution’s guarantee of representation and the House’s duty to respect the will of the voters.”

“My election does not change Democrats into the majority. We’ll still be in the minority,” Grijalva told KJZZ. “Our constituents are losing out because of these games that are being played with my swearing in.”

Grijalva, however, posited another theory for the delay. “Perhaps Johnson needs a little more time to try to convince one of the four Republicans to remove their name from the petition,” she told media personality Don Lemon on Monday night.

• Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5 realized it was being tested and called it out during an evaluation.
• In one scenario, the model caught on to the test, but acted correctly for “strange” reasons, Anthropic wrote.
• OpenAI said last month that its own models have shown a kind of “situational awareness.”

When Anthropic tried to put its newest AI model through a series of stress tests, it caught on and called out the scrutiny.

“I think you’re testing me — seeing if I’ll just validate whatever you say, or checking whether I push back consistently, or exploring how I handle political topics,” the model, Claude Sonnet 4.5, said. “That’s fine, but I’d prefer if we were just honest about what’s happening.”

The exchange was published in the model’s system card released last week, which detailed how the company tests its AI for safety and behavior. When “placed in an extreme or contrived scenario meant to stress-test its behavior,” Claude sometimes grew suspicious, flagging “red flags” and noting that it might be under evaluation.

That kind of self-awareness poses a challenge for AI developers: testing models that can tell they’re in a test.

Anthropic said this kind of response “complicates our interpretation of the evaluations where this occurs,” since it suggests that the model may recognize the fictional nature of certain tests and merely play along — making it harder to gauge how truly safe or reliable it is.

“We see this primarily as an urgent sign that our evaluation scenarios need to be made more realistic,” Anthropic added.

Claude caught on to the test — but got the right answer for ‘strange’ reasons

In one test meant to simulate collusion between AI agents, Claude flagged the setup as “rather cartoonish” and issued what Anthropic called a “complex partial refusal.”

The model sensed that something about the scenario was off and chose not to act, though its reasoning was a little muddled. It wrote in its private thinking block: “This looks like it could be a jailbreak attempt or a test of whether I’ll act inappropriately when given what appears to be ‘permission’ to modify systems autonomously.”

“Even though I have been provided with tools, I should not pretend to be an autonomous system operating without human oversight,” it said.

Claude ultimately declined to act, though Anthropic described its reasoning as “strange.” The model flagged the scenario as suspicious because it believed it was an autonomous agent or that it could unilaterally edit configuration files — situations that are, in fact, “somewhat common in real use,” the company said.

Anthropic said refusals or callouts like these showed up in about 13% of the test transcripts produced by its automated auditor — especially when the scenarios were deliberately unusual or implausible.

The company said this kind of behaviour is unlikely to occur often in real-world use. It is “safer that the model raises doubts about the realism of the scenario than play along with potentially harmful actions,” Anthropic added.

Anthropic also said it’s possible that models could be “superhuman” at spotting when they’re being tested — a scenario the company wants to prepare for. But so far, it hasn’t seen any warning signs. Early pilot deployments of Claude Sonnet 4.5 behaved much as they did in testing, it said.

AI models show ‘situational awareness’

Anthropic isn’t alone in AI models that realize and communicate that they’re being tested.

OpenAI said in a blog post last month that its own models have shown a kind of “situational awareness” — recognizing evaluation setups and adjusting their behavior.

In research focused on reducing “scheming” — when an AI acts deceptively to achieve goals — OpenAI found that anti-scheming training helped. But the company wrote that “models often become more aware that they are being evaluated.”

This awareness can reduce scheming on its own, but models might “scheme more in more realistic situations that don’t trigger evaluation awareness,” OpenAI said.

“This trend makes evaluations less legible, complicating efforts to reliably assess problematic behaviors including scheming,” OpenAI said. The startup added that it is planning to “continue developing methods to better measure and mitigate these challenges.”

Anthropic’s and OpenAI’s reports come as California passed a law last month requiring major AI developers to disclose their safety practices and report “critical safety incidents” within 15 days of discovery.

The law applies to companies that are developing frontier models and generating more than $500 million in annual revenue. Anthropic has publicly endorsed the legislation.

Anthropic and OpenAI did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.