Day: September 23, 2025

x.com/malteseherald/status/1…
“Fall guy” theory: Unsubstantiated reports and social media speculation suggest that Ahmadzada was arrested as a scapegoat to protect the Azerbaijani government and President Aliyev from direct blame ahead of his visit to the UN General Assembly in New York. However, there is no official confirmation of this theory.
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Mixing of Azeri and Russian oil to avoid sanctions was done under the personal agreement between Putin and Aliyev, Adnan Ahmadzada is a designated fall guy, arrested just before Aliyevs’ visit to New York – Google Search  google.com/search?q=Mixing+o…
Based on recent news reports and investigations, there is strong evidence that Azerbaijan is involved in schemes to help Russia circumvent international oil sanctions, but claims of a personal agreement between Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev are unconfirmed. The arrest of former SOCAR official Adnan Ahmadzada is also reported, but his role as a “designated fall guy” is a circulating theory, not an established fact. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Evidence of Azerbaijan’s role in sanction evasion

Targeted sanctions: Since May 2025, the UK and EU have issued sanctions against Azerbaijani entities, including the state-owned tanker Zangazur and directors of the trading company Coral Energy Group (now 2Rivers Group). They are accused of involvement in the “shadow” transport of sanctioned Russian oil.
Refining Russian crude: Investigative reports from May 2025 detail how Azerbaijan’s state oil company (SOCAR) refines Russian oil at its STAR refinery in Turkey. The refined products, including diesel and jet fuel, are then exported to Europe.
Product contamination: In August 2025, a shipment of Azeri crude oil to Romania was found to be contaminated with organic chlorides, a substance sometimes used in the Russian oil industry. Romanian authorities reportedly suspect Russian sabotage, which adds another layer to the complex trade situation. [1, 3, 4, 5, 6]

The arrest of Adnan Ahmadzada

Fraud charges: Adnan Ahmadzada, a former SOCAR deputy, was reportedly arrested in September 2025 on charges of oil fraud and mixing different grades of crude oil.
“Fall guy” theory: Unsubstantiated reports and social media speculation suggest that Ahmadzada was arrested as a scapegoat to protect the Azerbaijani government and President Aliyev from direct blame ahead of his visit to the UN General Assembly in New York. However, there is no official confirmation of this theory. [1, 7, 8]

The alleged Putin-Aliyev agreement

No proof: While recent sanctions and corruption allegations indicate a systematic effort to evade Russian oil sanctions via Azerbaijan, there is no publicly available evidence of a personal agreement between Putin and Aliyev orchestrating the scheme.
Known energy cooperation: It is known that Russia’s Lukoil provides crude oil to SOCAR’s refinery in Turkey, and the two countries have a broader energy partnership. In August 2024, Aliyev hosted Putin and the two agreed to increase trade. [4, 9]

Conclusion
Current reporting indicates that Azerbaijan is actively involved in sanction evasion related to Russian oil, and a former SOCAR official has been arrested on related charges. However, the specific claims of a personal agreement between Putin and Aliyev, and Adnan Ahmadzada being a designated “fall guy,” are part of unconfirmed theories and social media speculation, not officially reported facts. [1, 3, 5]

AI responses may include mistakes.

[1]  youtube.com/shorts/uPlcP_Yl-…
[2]  youtube.com/shorts/uPlcP_Yl-…
[3]  jam-news.net/shadow-russian-…
[4]  business-humanrights.org/my/…
[5]  jam-news.net/europe-bans-rus…
[6]  yahoo.com/news/articles/roma…
[7]  x.com/malteseherald/status/1…
[8]  azernews.az/region/247715.ht…
[9]  anca.org/azerbaijan-serial-s… x.com/malteseherald/status/1969623870391845053

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Sep 23, 2025

Mixing of Azeri and Russian oil to avoid sanctions was done under the personal agreement between Putin and Aliyev – Google Search  google.com/search?q=Mixing+o…
There is no publicly available evidence to confirm a personal agreement between Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev to mix oil for sanctions evasion. However, reports have detailed how Azerbaijan’s energy infrastructure and state-owned companies have been used to help Russia circumvent Western sanctions on oil exports. [1, 2, 3]
Allegations of Azerbaijan’s role in sanctions evasion

“Invisible hand” accusations: Multiple reports have described Azerbaijan as an “invisible hand” behind Russian oil exports to Europe. By routing Russian oil through its territory, Azerbaijan has been accused of providing a lifeline for Russia to continue profiting from its oil exports, while allowing Europe to maintain its energy supply.
Shipments through Azerbaijan: Analysis published in October 2022 by the analytics firm Petrostrategies highlighted a significant increase in crude oil exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, even as Azerbaijan’s domestic production was in decline. This suggested that Russian oil was being shipped as Azeri Light, a higher-priced crude.
Refining and rebranding: The EU has confirmed that the Azerbaijani state-owned STAR refinery in Turkey is subject to sanctions for processing Russian crude oil. Reports indicate that over 90% of the refinery’s crude imports in early 2024 originated from Russia. The EU’s 18th sanctions package, adopted in July 2025, specifically bans imports of refined products made from Russian oil in third countries as an anti-circumvention measure.
Tanker activity: In 2025, the UK and EU sanctioned several Azerbaijani state-owned tankers for their role in transporting Russian-origin oil using “irregular and high-risk” shipping practices. These tankers, affiliated with the Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company (ASCO) and SOCAR, were reportedly involved in transporting oil between Russian and Turkish ports.
Lukoil deal: In October 2023, Russian energy giant Lukoil provided a $1.5 billion loan to SOCAR and agreed to supply Russian crude to SOCAR’s STAR refinery. This was viewed by some as a workaround to avoid sanctions on direct purchases of Russian crude. [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]

The political context

No proof of a personal deal: While Aliyev and Putin have met on multiple occasions and affirmed their close ties, no evidence of a personal agreement to coordinate sanctions evasion has been revealed in public reports.
Strategic balancing act: Azerbaijan has performed a delicate balancing act, presenting itself as a strategic energy partner to Western countries while allegedly enabling Russia’s “shadow” oil trade. Western sanctions on Azerbaijani entities have been described by analysts as a “warning shot” to signal that its role in sanctions circumvention carries risks to its diplomatic and economic standing.
Recent conflicts: In 2025, Russia has repeatedly attacked Azerbaijani energy facilities in Ukraine, signaling that the relationship is complex and not always cooperative. Romanian authorities also investigated a potential Russian sabotage effort that involved contaminating a shipment of Azerbaijani oil. [3, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15]

AI responses may include mistakes.

[1]  armenianweekly.com/2024/10/0…
[2]  armenianweekly.com/2024/10/0…
[3]  crudeaccountability.org/bala…
[4]  civilnet.am/en/news/680193/r…
[5]  eurasianet.org/azerbaijans-s…
[6]  facebook.com/armeniannationa…
[7]  facebook.com/ocmediaorg/post…
[8]  news.am/eng/news/902900.html
[9]  hetq.am/en/article/175817
[10]  eurasian-research.org/public…
[11]  neweasterneurope.eu/2025/07/…
[12]  rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-russi…
[13]  usnews.com/news/world/articl…
[14]  euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/…
[15]  caspianpost.com/analytics/ru…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Sep 23, 2025

Mixing of Azeri and Russian oil to avoid sanctions – Google Search  google.com/search?q=Mixing+o…
Reports suggest that Russian crude oil is being transported, processed, and exported via Azerbaijan to circumvent international sanctions. European countries have purchased fuel products from Azerbaijani refineries, though the raw material was primarily Russian crude. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The process of Russian oil blending and rebranding

Russian oil imports to Azerbaijan: Since Western nations, including the UK and EU, imposed sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan has significantly increased its import of Russian crude oil.
Refining in Turkey: The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) refines Russian crude at its STAR refinery in Turkey. The refinery was built with the capacity to process different types of oil, including Russia’s Urals crude.
Mixing and rebranding: Once refined, the oil products are mixed with Azerbaijani crude. By transforming Russian crude into new products, its origin is obscured. The refined fuel is then exported from Turkey to international markets, including the European Union.
Tanker transport: The Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company (ASCO) is reportedly involved in transporting Russian crude via its tankers to the STAR refinery. The UK sanctioned an ASCO-owned tanker, the Zangezur, in May 2025 for its role in the “shadow” delivery of Russian oil. [1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9]

International response and ongoing challenges

UK and EU sanctions: In September 2025, the EU confirmed that the STAR refinery would be subject to sanctions under its 18th sanctions package. The UK has also targeted Azerbaijani entities, including the oil trading company Coral Energy Group, over ties to Russia’s oil trade. In June 2025, the EU announced a proposal to ban imports of refined products made from Russian crude in third countries, which is intended to close this specific sanctions loophole.
Market impact: Despite these measures, enforcement has been challenging. The use of a “shadow fleet” of tankers operating outside of normal regulations continues to facilitate the trade.
Azerbaijan’s position: Critics accuse Azerbaijan of conducting a geopolitical “balancing act”—maintaining its status as a Western energy partner while enabling Russia’s shadow oil trade for profit. European countries that rely on Azerbaijani oil are placed in a complex and diplomatically delicate position. [2, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12]

AI responses may include mistakes.

[1]  oc-media.org/eu-sanctions-qu…
[2]  armenianweekly.com/2024/10/0…
[3]  business-humanrights.org/my/…
[4]  crudeaccountability.org/bala…
[5]  jam-news.net/shadow-russian-…
[6]  facebook.com/armeniannationa…
[7]  report.az/en/energy/azerbaij…
[8]  interfax.com/newsroom/top-st…
[9]  eurasianet.org/azerbaijans-s…
[10]  reuters.com/sustainability/c…
[11]  bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
[12]  spglobal.com/commodity-insig…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Sep 23, 2025