Trump made NS Strategy more favorable to Russia: background, assessments, predictions
#National #Security #Strategy
The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) moved towards a stance more favorable to Russia by shifting from naming Russia as an explicit “threat” to a potential partner for “strategic stability,” while simultaneously criticizing traditional European allies.
Background
Previous U.S. administrations (both the first Trump and Biden administrations) had consistently framed Russia’s actions as a primary foreign policy concern and an “acute threat” actively engaged in “subversion and aggression”. By contrast, the new “America First” strategy, released in December 2025, de-emphasized major power competition and adopted a more conciliatory tone toward Russia, focusing on non-interventionism and American “preeminence” in the Western Hemisphere. The document also notably criticized European nations, accusing them of having “unrealistic expectations for the war” in Ukraine and subverting democratic processes, an alignment of rhetoric that Moscow welcomed.
Assessments
Foreign policy experts and European officials largely agree that the changes represent a significant departure from past U.S. foreign policy and are beneficial to Russia’s strategic goals.
Kremlin Reception: Russian officials, including Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, explicitly praised the NSS, stating that its “adjustments… are largely consistent with our vision”. This marks the first time Moscow has so enthusiastically welcomed a U.S. security document.
Softened Language: The strategy avoids condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and instead positions the U.S. as a potential neutral arbiter between Russia and Europe to “reestablish strategic stability”.
European Concerns: European allies reacted with alarm, viewing the strategy as an attempt to divide the continent and weaken the transatlantic alliance. Critics argue the document ignores the real threat Russia poses not just to Europe but to U.S. global interests.
Contradiction in Policy: Some experts noted a disconnect between the NSS’s “America First” rhetoric and actual policy actions, such as the Trump administration’s separate efforts to increase funding for the European Deterrence Initiative and provide arms to Ukraine. However, the overall message of the NSS was seen as a win for Russia’s narrative.
Predictions
Weakened Alliances: Analysts predict that the strategy could lead to a fractured NATO and a weakened EU, as the U.S. shifts focus away from collective security in Europe.
Policy Incoherence: The approach is seen as potentially creating strategic “holes” in U.S. foreign policy, making it harder to address adversarial influence in critical regions like Africa and the Middle East where Russia and China remain active.
Increased Instability: By not explicitly designating Russia as a primary threat, the strategy may embolden Russian aggression and create more opportunities for Moscow to “probe NATO’s weakest seams,” particularly along the borders with Ukraine and Poland.
Focus on Bilateralism: The long-term effect is likely a U.S. foreign policy that prioritizes bilateral relations and transactional outcomes over multilateral institutions and shared democratic values, which aligns with Russia’s goal of challenging the post-Cold War liberal order.— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Dec 10, 2025
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